Home Office prepares for Channel boats crisis to last a DECADE as Rishi Sunak scrambles to save Rwanda plan with Tory MPs meeting TODAY ahead of crunch Commons vote

Rishi Sunak faces a frantic battle to stop MPs crashing his Rwanda plan today as it emerged the government believes the Channel boats crisis could run for a decade.

The PM and his allies are desperately trying to convince Tories not to vote down his emergency legislation when it comes to the Commons tomorrow. 

The right-wing ERG bloc is set to meet this lunchtime to thrash out their stance on the proposals, with warnings that they do not go far enough to end the legal quagmire holding up deportation flights.

The moderate One Nation group of MPs – many of whom say the Bill goes too far in striking out human rights rules – will gather this evening. 

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps was sent out on broadcast today to highlight modelling that showed only one in 200 challenges would be successful under the new measures. However, officials have conceded there is only a 50-50 chance of the first flights taking off next year, as Mr Sunak has suggested. 

And documents slipped out by the Home Office show the department is issuing contracts to manage the arrival of migrants on small boats until at least 2030, with the option of extending the contracts until 2034.

Up to £700million will be spent running the Western Jet Foil facility in Dover and the reception centre at the former Manston airfield in Kent.

Rishi Sunak faces a frantic battle to stop MPs crashing his Rwanda plan today as it emerged the government believes the Channel boats crisis could run for a decade

Documents slipped out by the Home Office show the department is issuing contracts to manage the arrival of migrants on small boats until at least 2030, with the option of extending the contracts until 2034

Small boats used by Channel arrivals being stored at Dover, Kent 

To add to the difficulties for Mr Sunak, he is giving evidence to the Covid Inquiry today as the drama develops nearby in Westminster. 

Last week the Government published draft legislation designed to tighten the law in response to the Supreme Court’s rejection of the Rwanda plan last month.

The Bill is widely expected to pass at its second reading, as opponents will focus their revolt on the committee stage in the Commons next month.

However, there is still a possibility that enough Tory MPs could abstain to kill it immediately. 

A One Nation source said some of its MPs were considering voting against the Bill tomorrow to make plain that they think it goes too far in over-riding the Human Rights Act.

‘We have genuine concerns about the legality of some of the Bill, and so we are talking to both ministers and lawyers to see where we eventually land,’ the MP told the Mail last night. A final decision will be made during the group’s meeting at 6pm today.

Right-wing MPs from groups including the New Conservatives, the ERG and the Common Sense Group will meet at midday to discuss the findings of Sir Bill Cash’s ‘star chamber’ team of legal experts.

A senior MP on the Right of the party said they remained concerned about a clause in the Bill allowing appeals based on a person’s ‘particular individual circumstances’.

They warned that several MPs could vote against the Bill at a third reading if it is not amended by the Government.

‘There’s absolutely no purpose in ploughing on with a piece of legislation that doesn’t fix the problem – it’s a complete waste of time,’ the MP said.

‘The difficulty that you’ve got is the Government has said it’s the toughest piece of legislation on migration ever.

‘That may well be true, but if you’ve got a colander and you seal a few holes off, it’s still leaky, isn’t it? If you want water to stay in a colander, you have to seal off all the holes.’ 

Ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick said he would not support the Bill – suggesting he may abstain in tomorrow’s vote – as he delivered another thinly veiled pop at the PM.

He told the BBC: ‘We’ve already done two Bills, this is the third Bill. It’s three strikes and you’re out. I want this Bill to work and create that powerful deterrent and I’m afraid it’s very clear to all those people who really understand how this system operates that this Bill will not succeed.’

But last night a government source claimed Mr Jenrick had ‘changed his tune dramatically, leading people to conclude this is more about his career ambitions than policy principle’.

Tory MPs on both the Left and Right of the party look set to inflict damaging blows to Rishi Sunak (pictured) as they give their verdict on his Rwanda plan

Ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick (pictured) said he would not support the Bill – suggesting he may abstain in tomorrow’s vote – as he delivered another thinly veiled pop at the PM

‘As recently as July he was making the case for safeguards for a vanishingly small group of people who are at ‘risk of serious and irreversible harm’, which is exactly what this Bill does,’ the source said.

‘People are baffled by his behaviour – he is arguing against a system he very personally advocated for just weeks ago.’

Tory whips – and Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron – spent the weekend trying to convince MPs to back the Bill, but one source on the Right of the party said they were ‘surprised’ that Mr Sunak did not reach out. Meanwhile, No 10 is resisting pressure to amend the Bill.

A government source said: ‘We are talking to colleagues, but we are confident this Bill is extremely robust and makes the routes for any individual challenge vanishingly small. This is the strongest possible piece of legislation to get Rwanda operational.’

Modelling suggests 90 per cent of appeals will be dismissed within days, before reaching court – allowing illegal migrants to be put on planes immediately.

Of the remaining 10 per cent granted a ‘permission to pass go’ to appeal to the Upper Tribunal, nine in ten are expected to be denied around 25 days after they arrived in the UK. Officials estimate half of those would lose their case and be removed.

Cabinet minister Michael Gove said the Government takes ‘seriously’ the views of its backbenchers on the proposed legislation, telling Sky News: ‘We will see what Sir Bill and the star chamber say. We take seriously the views of colleagues, particularly eminent colleagues like Sir Bill who have deep and profound legal experience.

‘But we believe this Bill is tough and robust, and more than that you can look, you can read down the Bill, compare it to the Supreme Court judgment, and you can see that this Bill will ensure that all of the reasons that were used in the past to prevent people going to Rwanda are dealt with.’

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