How China could invade Taiwan with terrifying drone swarms & one million troops in attack ‘worse than Ukraine’ | The Sun

How China could invade Taiwan with terrifying drone swarms & one million troops in attack ‘worse than Ukraine’ | The Sun

June 16, 2022

CHINA could launch a massive assault on Taiwan that could be even more devastating than Russia's attack on Ukraine, experts warned.

Military analysts fear high tech swarms of drones, up to one million soldiers, warships and bombers could all be sent hurtling over the 110mile Taiwan Strait.

Grim predictions about the potential war come as China has vowed to reclaim the island which they believe still belongs to Beijing.

Taiwan insists it is a independent nation after splitting from mainland China in 1949.

Fears have been looming that China may be emboldened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and could seize the opportunity to strike Taiwan.

And former White House adviser David Ochmanek told The Sun Online the scale of devastation would be "unlike anything the world has seen since the Korean conflict in 1951".

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The Korean War killed up to three million civilians, the US dropped more than 600,000 tons of bombs & 32,557 tons of napalm on North Korea,and almost every city in rogue state was "at least half obliterated".

Mr Ochmanek, a former defence analyst for the Obama administration, said the US and its allies would "literally have days… not weeks, not months" to defeat China if it launched all-out war on Taiwan.

"[Beijing] will undertake a massive bombardment of the defences of the targeted country, which means attacking their surface-to-air missiles, surveillance radars, airfields and command and control," Mr Ochmanek told The Sun Online.

"We expect China to do that with its much larger inventory of missiles against Taiwan," and against US bases if Washington decided to intervene, he said.

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In response, Western allies would need "thousands" of drones to counter Chinese air dominance in an invasion set to cost both sides "hundreds of thousands" of men, the defence researcher said.

"[We would] literally have days to defeat this massive invasion and prevent them from confronting us with a fait accompli. Not weeks, not months."

Drone swarms are believed to be key in the invasion – with China having an array of advanced weapons for both surveillance and strike.

China has supersonic drones for spying, larger drones designed to take down American warships, and is even developing drones designed to hunt soldiers in packs.

But there will also be plenty of conventional forces used, with estimates of between half a million to 1.2million soldiers required for a successful assault.

Strategic bombers to blitz Taiwan's defences, warship naval blockades to prevent help from coming, and missile strikes from the mainland will all be used by China to try and take the island.

Weapons analyst Sam Cranny-Evans said Beijing is already using elite spy drones to carry out secret missions over Taiwan.

He said the Asian powerhouse's tactical drone of choice was the BKZ-006A, which was being used to carry out reconnaissance and can double up as a tool for electronic warfare and communication relays.



Another is the WZ-8, which are dropped from strategic bombers and provide an "orbital" view and tracking system to "provide real-time reconnaissance to a missile in flight".

The WZ-8 drone is able to fly at up to five times the speed of sound and is able to spy on US forces at large distances, while the CH-6 is designed to sink American ships.

Beijing has also launched an Artificial Intelligence drone mothership able to operate and potentially launch military attacks autonomously.

According to the Chinese, the vessel is designed for marine research but already there have been fears it could be used to launch attacks on the US Navy and other adversaries.

The Zhu Hai Yun is reportedly able to carry around 50 aerial, surface and undersea drones, and was launched at a ship yard in the city of Guangzhou.

Most of the rear of the ship is an open deck where flying drones can land and be stored while there is also launch and recovery and for other drones.

Mr Ochmanek said Beijing was stocking up on a variety of UAVs, including large Global Hawk-like drones, and smaller to medium sized ones with similar functionality to the US' lethal Predator and Reaper drones.



This, combined with Beijing's large arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles "causes a serious threat for anyone looking to operate from a major facility" like an aircraft carrier or airbase in the South China Sea, he said.

"Hundreds of aircraft would be engaged, tens of thousands of human beings. The Chinese invasion force might be upwards of 100,000 troops.

"The Taiwanese, too, would commit hundreds of thousands of troops for their own defence.

"The lethality of the weapons in existence today would mean the casualty rates would be very high on both sides."

In the event of an invasion, Taipei could expect to be hit by long-range precision missile strikes and pummelled by air bombardments combined with cyber attacks, electronic warfare and a naval blockade, Cranny-Evans explained.

He said: "If you take military wisdom as a thing, you need a three-to-one ratio when you’re attacking and Taiwan has something like 200,000 troops, including its reserves.

"That says you need an attacking force of half a million. And most estimates on amphibious attacks into urban environments say you need at least a six-to-one ratio.

"So, for China to have any hope of succeeding, you’re looking at between half a million and 1.2million personnel being gathered opposite Taiwan, ready to disembark and invade."

WAR MACHINE

It comes as China's biggest ever high-tech aircraft carrier will be launched in just a matter of weeks amid concerns it could readying to attack its island neighbour.

The launch of the Chinese navy's enormous Type 003 supercarrier, which weighs 90,000 tonnes and is longer than nine blue whales, has been delayed by the strict Covid lockdown in Shanghai.

A Chinese Twitter user shared aerial pictures of the nearly-completed battleship at Shanghai's Jiangnan Shipyard last month.

The Type 003 is said to boast more advanced aircraft-launching technology, allowing it to deploy the FC-31 new generation of stealth fighters.

It is also much faster and has a larger arsenal of weapons on deck than existing aircraft carriers.

The ship is China's third carrier and is part of an attempt to modernise and expand the country's military under a new five-year plan.

It also appears to have two large, side-mounted aircraft elevators on its starboard side and is fitted with electromagnetic catapults that will sling combat aircraft into the sky.

Work began on Xi Jinping's latest battleship in 2018, which military analyst Robert Farley claimed will be the "largest and most advanced aircraft carrier built outside the United States.

It comes amid claims China is building up its military ahead of a planned invasion of its smaller neighbour in the next few years.

Top US intelligence official Avril Haines told the Senate in May: "It's our view that [China's leaders] are working hard to effectively put themselves into a position in which their military is capable of taking Taiwan."

Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee, she said that it remains to be seen how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected China's plans.

She added that the threat to Taiwan is "acute" between now and 2030.

China claims that the island of 23 million is part of its mainland, while Taiwan fiercely guards its independence.

In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, senior Taiwanese officials have warned Beijing is ramping up for an invasion of the island 100 miles off its coast.

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Shortly after the start of the conflict, China said it was committed to "resolving the Taiwan question in the new era," in a chilling threat to the country.

And just like week, China gain doubled down – warning the US it "will not hesitate" to start a war to reclaim Taiwan.

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