Race-by-race tips and preview for Rosehill on SaturdayDecember 7, 2018
Race 1 – 1:15PM ROADWORK SOLUTIONS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)
$1.5m colt 5. Creator has looked the part in his two trials, working to the line strongly in both of them. The 1200m journey looks perfect for his debut. Particularly liked the way this Redoute’s Choice two-year-old responded in the latest of them when he was given half a click to hit the line. That was behind Eleven Eleven who had excuses when favourite at Doomben last Saturday. Peter and Paul Snowden put the polish on him and Kerrin McEvoy rides. Plenty to like there and the early support with TAB (opened $6) is another push.
Up in trip: Chris Waller’s Zalatte steps up to 1400m at Rosehill today.Credit:AAP
Dangers: 1. Czarson was a dominant winner at Gosford on debut beating Exhilarates. He had too much speed over the 1000m. Can he stretch that to 1200m? Would be more confident if he was tackling 1100m. 2. Memphis Rock is the most experienced horse here. He had his chance at Sandown last start but is clearly thriving on racing given he turns up here still in his first preparation. 3. Kiamichi showed desire to win on debut.
How to play it: Creator to win.
Race 2 – 1:50PM 2019 MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
6. Zalatte was impressive on debut for Chris Waller over 1250m on the Kensington surface, beating a subsequent winner in Haut Brion Her. The filly was heavily backed late too ($12-$7) having trialled well prior. Out of a Zabeel mare (Za Star), she should be even better suited out to 1400m. 2. Baller is the only natural leader in the field of seven so hoping Jay Ford can park Zalatte in behind the speed from barrier 2. If is she isn’t brilliantly away, like on debut, Ford will still be able to drive up inside to be handy. Punters Intel reveals she ran home her last 600m in 34.53s, which was two lengths quicker than the next best. This is a filly with plenty of scope.
Dangers: 5. Reelem In Ruby got the job done at Canterbury first-up, getting a narrow photo over the luckless River Bird, but suspect the win had more merit than meets the eye. She was exposed a long way out, made a run and peaked late, despite still winning. Kerrin McEvoy rides. What do we do with Baller? He has looked brilliant in two wins but wedged in between them was a fading fourth when tried over 1400m. He was pestered in front but Coterie, the other leader, stuck on. Being a High Chaparral colt you wouldn’t think the extra trip would be a problem.
How to play it: Zalatte to win.
Race 3 – 2:25PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
2. Chewbacca found the line well first-up in a Highway Handicap after a lengthy spell when heavily backed into $2.80 favourite before winning comfortably on his home patch at Goulburn as an odds-on favourite. Out to 1400m third up looks the perfect progression. Draws well in barrier 3 and Kerrin McEvoy steers. Have said this before but Danny Williams’ method of targeting lightly-raced horses still on the up has worked very well for him in the Highway series. This Uncle Mo gelding is a four-year-old but has still only had six starts.
Dangers: There is a real unknown quantity about 4. Hemmerle which progressed from a Goulburn maiden to running in two Rosehill BM77 races all in the one preparation last time in. He looked like a 2000m horse that deep into his campaign but he’ll sprint well fresh over 1400m. James McDonald rides. 1. Bennelong Dancer charged home to win at Albury fresh. He was only 2.8 lengths off Victorem in the Country Championships Final last preparation. 7. Bridyn May and 9. Our Rosemaree for the multiples.
How to play it: Chewbacca to win.
Race 4 – 3:00PM SUMMER RACING HANDICAP (2000 METRES)
4. Araaja has teased punters ever since stepping out on Australian tracks. She is yet to crack a win but her last-start effort behind Sky Boy from last suggests a win is not too far away. Blinkers have been applied here. Punters Intel reveals her last 600m of 34.81s was the quickest in the race. The trick, it seems, to this imported mare with Chris Waller is dry tracks. Three of her six runs here have been on dry decks and all have been very good. Not so much her runs on wet ground. The five-year-old won’t get a better chance than this tackling 2000m third-up and nothing but sunshine ahead of Saturday.
Dangers: 5. Green Sweet is half a hope here, which just about sums up how tricky the race is. It’s been more than 600 days since his last win but back out to 2000m having run fourth in the Goulburn Cup last start does suit. 3 Etymology is always thereabouts but doesn’t make a habit of winning. The same can certainly be said for 1. Abdon. He loomed to beat Our Century last start. Right up in the weights with 60kg. 2. Naval Warfare looks certain to win one of these sooner rather than later.
How to play it: Araaja to win.
Race 5 – 3:40PM ATC TIPPING COMPETITION HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
There is a case to be made that 2. Irithea went too slowly first-up, which played into the hands of Demerara and Smart Amelia who had a sharper turn of foot. Punters Intel tells us this horse led in a very leisurely 37.08s the first 600m. That’s crawling and was 8.5 lengths slower than the other 1200m race on the same day. It’d be easy to mark her down saying she had her chance but I’m marking her up. Out to 1400m she won’t be waiting around for anybody at the 600m. Her form was rock solid last campaign beating the likes of Mandylion before placing in listed and group 3 company behind Savatiano, Shumookh and Princess Posh. There will be some sting in this race early as far as speed goes but once they settle down to find their spots, she’ll get her chance.
Dangers: 1. Sir Bacchus went super first-up behind Cradle Mountain and Dyslexic. This is the most suitable race he has contested in a long time out to 1400m second-up at Rosehill (where four of his seven wins have been). Can be hard to catch. 4. Mapmaker found the right race last week, again proving his fondness for Rosehill (12:3-3-4). The inside draw gives Adam Hyeronimus options. 10. Man Of Peace is up in grade but racing well for Matty Dale. He’ll make his own luck with the 52kg.
How to play it: Irithea to win.
Race 6 – 4:20PM TAB REWARDS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
This isn’t an easy race, at least on paper, but once you map it out it becomes apparent that there is only one natural leader. That will allow 1. Hussterical to get complete control from the front. She’s had two pipe-openers over 1200m trips but will come into her own out to 1400m now. She was beaten fair and square last start by 4. Nicci’s Gold but this race sets up differently and Nicci’s Gold has drawn widest, ensuring she’ll see the lot of these turning for home. Hussterical is a mare that generally takes a run or two to hit her strips, as was the case last campaign when a dominant winner third up straight out to the mile having run half-a-length second to Resin the start prior.
Dangers: Nicci’s Gold went enormous first up and out to 1400m also suits her. As mentioned above, the shape of this race might beat her but stick with her this preparation. 6. Velocita ran second to stablemate Sexy Eyes last start giving her an almighty fright at the $1.30 quote. There were 4.5 lengths back to third. Punters Intel reveals identical last 200m splits (11.43s). Expect Kerrin McEvoy to use the good draw to camp on the back of Hussterical. 2. Sweet Deal beat Newsfan last start in what look a deep race with Mapmaker and Catesby already franking the form. 7. Deft is desperate for this trip now, and maybe even further.
How to play it: Hussterical to win.
Race 7 – 5:00PM MERRY CHRISTMAS ATC MEMBERS SPRINT (1100 METRES)
The blinkers going on and trainer Gerald Ryan keeping 1. Albumin to sprint trips has seen the grey win three of his past four starts. He’s also undefeated in three runs over the Rosehill 1100m. The four-year-old’s rating sees him right at the top of the weights and he meets stablemate 3. Tango Rain significantly worse off at the weights from when they met last campaign, but I’m still happy to play him at the odds. That win over Tango Rain saw Albumin pin his ears back to run home his last 200m in 11.52s, the quickest of the day. He’ll get a lovely run from the inside draw, tucking in behind the speed before unleashing his sharp turn of foot.
Dangers: 2. Coruscate has been freshened for this, dropping back to 1100m having failed to chase down talented mare Dyslexic. With any luck from the draw, he’ll be running on. 6. Single Bullet was impressive last start. Gary Portelli obviously thinks the gelding is more explosive when kept fresh. 4. Bon Amis and 9. Slow Burn next best.
How to play it: Albumin to win ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Race 8 – 5:40PM CHRISTMAS AT THE GARDENS HANDICAP (1500 METRES)
4. Asterius ran eighth first-up but don’t take that on face value. The run was a cracker. The four-year-old motored to the line to be beaten 1.8 lengths by Sweet Deal and Newsfan over 1300m. Punters Intel reveals he broke 11s home last 200m (10.99s). He’d have finished even closer if Tommy Berry didn’t have to throw the hand break on approaching the line. Out to 1500m is perfect now second-up. He won second-up last preparation at Rosehill over 1500m. He doesn’t have much tactical speed so he’s likely to give a start and need time to click through his gears. That’s why you’re getting the price. Happy to gamble that the breaks go his way because he has the talent to win better races than this.
Dangers: Have got 5. Reflectivity marked as a coming winner on the strength of his last start effort behind Organza. He booted clear at the 300m only to be collared late but there was a margin to third and he should be at his top now. He doesn’t have the scope of Asterius, and this BM78 has more depth than the one he ran in last start, but he should be able to control the race from the front. Terribly hard to beat and worth a saver. 6. Turnberry has been very consistent this campaign, being kept to this distance range. No reason to think he won’t be thereabouts again while 7. Island Missile will strip fitter and is suited out to 1400m.
How to play it: Asterius to win and save Reflectivity.
Race 9 – 6:15PM AUSTRALIAN TURF CLUB HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
1. Drachenfels … now I know what you’re thinking but hear me out. This five-year-old has had three starts for Bjorn Baker (ex-Godolphin) and all three have been leader-friendly races. Tipping that won’t be the case here with a stack of speed engaged, and most of it coming across from wide draws. Two back he should’ve won at Canterbury when bottled up on the fence and although ‘should have’ is not exactly a foreign term to Drachenfels this race sets up well for him to figure at double figure odds. He has drawn very wide but the speed on should still give him his chance and Kerrin McEvoy rides, with Baker opting for a senior jockey instead of being tempted to claim off the 61kg. Smart move. But a winning move? Hope so.
Dangers: 6. Lisdoonvarna began well at Rosehill first up but speed kicked up inside her forcing Peter Wells to grab hold and settle her out the back. The pace was on up front courtesy of Niccobelle but like the way she worked to the line with Punters Intel revealing she ran her last 600m in 34.02s, only bettered by the quinella. She’ll come on from that and will be more comfortable out to 1300m, even though 1400m would have been ideal. 7. Arancini has a formidable second up record (3:2-0-1). He did enough first-up to suggest another win is close.
How to play it: Drachenfels each-way.
Supplied by Racing NSW.
Full form and race replays at racingnsw.com.au
Source: Read Full Article