NFL picks and best bets for Week 13: Big day for Derek Carr; Broncos hang with Chiefs

NFL picks and best bets for Week 13: Big day for Derek Carr; Broncos hang with Chiefs

December 3, 2021

Intro by Doug Kezirian

Road teams have shined at the betting window this season, and the Week 13 slate will test bettors. We could see five road favorites of at least seven points, which would tie for the most in a single week over the last 40 seasons.

“I really don’t think home field matters that much,” Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, said in a press release. “In general, home field has mattered less and less, and it shows since we have bigger road favorites. People are still willing to lay the points on big road favorites because the matchups are just viewed as total mismatches and the home field isn’t as accounted for.”

So far, road teams have covered 57%, which would be the highest cover percentage for any season in the Super Bowl era. Additionally, road teams are winning games outright and could finish above .500 for the second straight season. The only time it has ever happened since the 1970 merger was in 2020.

“I’m not saying it doesn’t matter at all. I guess people have differing views on that,” Pullen said. “But it’s based on the talent. If the talent on the field is not good, then the home-field advantage is lessened.”

Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (13-21-2, 0-1 last week), Tyler Fulghum (9-23, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (36-32-1, 2-5) and Anita Marks (186-175, 13-14), Fantasy and Sports Betting analyst Eric Moody (92-87, 7-12), ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder (49-42, 4-1) and Mackenzie Kraemer (4-11, 0-1), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (24-20-1, 1-2) and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz (38-32, 2-4) will provide their top plays across the NFL landscape. (Records through Week 12.)

Here are their best bets for Sunday’s Week 13 games.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

Jump to: Cardinals-Bears | Buccaneers-Falcons | Chargers-Bengals | Vikings-Lions | Giants-Dolphins | Eagles-Jets | Colts-Texans | Washington-Raiders | Jaguars-Rams | Ravens-Steelers | 49ers-Seahawks | Broncos-Chiefs

Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET games

Arizona Cardinals (-8, 44.5) at Chicago Bears

Fortenbaugh: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are back at practice and the rest of the Arizona roster is well-rested coming off the team’s bye week. Furthermore, the Cardinals currently rank fourth in the NFL in scoring defense (18.4 PPG) and sixth in opponent yards per play (5.3). But if you’re still waiting for me to blow your mind, brace yourself, because here it is: On the road this season, Arizona is 6-0 both straight up and against the number while beating the closing spread by an average of 18.6 points per game! That’s not how many points the team is winning by, it’s how many points the team is beating the spread by! Good luck to the Bears, who currently rank 29th in the league in both scoring and yards per play.

Pick: Cardinals -8, Cardinals -2 in 6-point teaser with Vikings -1

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